控制错觉、赌徒谬误，还是两者都不是？通过扩展Langer和Roth（1975）的研究测试关键的赌博心理学模型

Abstract Cognitive biases about randomness, such as the illusion of control and the gambler’s fallacy, are central to the widely-used cognitive models of disordered gambling. In a highly-cited foundational paper, Langer and Roth (1975) found that participants thought they were better at predicting coin-flips when they were randomised to receive more wins at the start rather than the end of a 30-flip sequence. This replicable effect, which has been attributed to the illusion of control, could also be driven by biases that do not involve active involvement, such as the gambler’s fallacy. We ther