福祉， VUCA （t）和BANI：全球颠覆的不平等人类负担（形成性向量框架和国家-年度专家组证据， 2005–2022）

The acronyms VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity) and BANI (Brittle, Anxious, Nonlinear, Incomprehensible) have organised much management and strategy discourse over the last decade, but they have rarely been operationalised in a way that lets them be tested against data. This paper proposes that the two should be understood dynamically rather than as competing acronyms: VUCA(t) as an external field of disruption (a common, time-varying load of financial, policy, and geopolitical shocks to which all national social systems are exposed, and which can strain their normal functio