跨研究的贝叶斯证据合成

Bayesian evidence synthesis (BES) is a method for evaluating the empirical support for a common theory across multiple studies. In each study, the theory predicts a set of order constraints on the parameters of interest. Evidence is aggregated by multiplying the Bayes factors of the individual studies, yielding the product Bayes factor (PBF). The numerator of the PBF corresponds to the joint predicted hypothesis that the theory holds across different contexts, implying that the predicted order constraints are correct in each study. Since the Bayes factor is a relative measure of evidence, inte